Over at Next Right, Patrick Ruffini points out what’s been influencing the polls and which of those influences are going away:
So, we saw an initial round of polling showing Mitch McConnell trailing in Kentucky and Elizabeth Dole up within the margin in North Carolina and John Cornyn only up by 4 in Texas.
And today?
Dole leads by 14. Cornyn is up by 17. Gordon Smith, who has to be on anyone’s list of beatable Republican incumbents leads Jeff Merkley by 9 in Oregon, an Obama +8 state.
I’m not saying things aren’t tough, particularly in the Senate. But I would argue there is a chance for more of a “normal” year than a repeat wave, which would be an historical aberration.
Emphasis added.